Our Response to Mad Maxers

by Paul Edwards

At one of the Sustainable Livelihoods seminars Sarah and did recently, three men in the audience were adamant that the future awaiting us will resemble the world of Mad Max. For those of you unfamiliar with the movie on which this scenario is based, it’s a fantasized snapshot of a future characterized by violence, fear, and brutality. In such a world, the three priorities in life will be food, guns, and ammo.

This is not our view of how we need to think about or plan for the future. Here’s why:

You can’t build a wall high enough or have a gun big enough to withstand the kind of weaponry too readily available today. If we want a secure future, our best bet is being part of a sustainable community of people who work together to support each another in providing for our basic needs and well-being, including physical security.

If we assume, as the Mad Maxers do, that the American population will shrink to about one out of ten of us today, we would have a populous roughly equivalent to the number of inhabitants just before the Civil War – about the time of the Lincoln-Douglas debates. That was a time when more people worked on their own than worked to the rhythm of a machine and when barter was always a choice for trade. We expect to see both these become trends in the emerging new economy we call the Elm Street Economy.

That was also a time when slaves in the South did much of the manual labor in that region. Slavery became unthinkable when just one gallon of gasoline being the equivalent to 500 hours of manual labor. Now automation is on the verge of replacing hand and stoop labor farm workers. But without renewable means of low-cost energy, slavery, indentured servitude and company towns could return. These we most certainly hope will not develop, but a world such as that just might devolve into a Mad Max world.

In a Mad Max world, to defend against nations and terrorists who bear grievances or perceive gains by vanquishing America, the U.S. would need to have a large standing military – something the pre-Civil War U.S. did not have. With only one in ten Americans remaining it is doubtful the population could produce enough wealth and resources to support such a military.

So while there are some who believe there may be enough oil still remaining in the ground to sustain a greatly reduced population for some time, do we want to take that chance? Do we want to risk the emergence of a Mad Max world? Or shall we begin now to build an Elm Street Economy, a resilient local communities based on renewable energies that will enable us to adapt to a declining amount of cheap fossil fuel? For myself, the latter is my choice. In part, because surviving in the social order or disorder of a Mad Max world would not allow me to be the kind of person I am willing to be.
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July Summary: Good News Truly Upside Down

The main characteristic we noticed in our News Updates during the past month was a near obsessive drive to make us think the economy is getting better in the sense of heading back to the life we were knew it prior to 2008. We doubt that most people are experiencing personal signs of such a return in their daily lives though.

This kind of cognitive dissonance might lull us into some kind of restless false hopeful expectations, but it doesn't contribute to a real sense of eco-nomic well-being, because it conflicts openly with real life experience.

The most important thing we can do for our eco-nomic well-being right now is to accept that we're not going back and that's a good thing. It won't serve us to go back. Back is what got us here. We need to go forward.

Fortunately the "eco" part of eco-nomic, which is clearly not better, is helping us pay attention to what's really going on. There has been so much news about climate and weather disruption throughout the US that it's pretty hard not to pay attention.

Most of us are experiencing this personally in one dramatic way or another: too much heat or too much cold, serious flooding or serious drought, a pervasive feeling of "Whatever happened to summer?"

We just returned from Phoenix where it was over 110 degrees throughout the week (100 at midnight; 115 one day) and news anchors there were warning folks not to let their animals walk on paved outdoor surfaces.

Our friends in Portland are sweltering too, because they're not used to over 100 degree heat. A colleague in Maine is baffled at the endless rain. Friends in New York are shivering when they're usually sweltering.

Granted if the dire aspects of the financial side of our eco-nomic situation are lessening somewhat that will give us more time to make the changes we need to make to live in a more eco-nomically sustainable way. And in this reguard we continued to see some very promising signs this past month that people are doing just that.

Now, let's just have to keep moving forward in directions like these:

* Money spent at locally owned businesses creates more local business
Tough Times Lead to Local Currencies Daily Time Magazine 7/32
Communities and their residents all fare far better when money spent in local communities stays in the local community. Local currency builds strong local communities. Too bad times have to get bad before we do good things.

* Don't have money, but we've got time; volunteering is on the rise
Economy Low, Generosity High USA Today 7/28
This looks like a snapshot from the future when money has become less important and we do more for ourselves and each other.

* Small scale local farming becoming a national trend

New Generation of Farmers Gong Small Scale Daily Camera 7/26
More evidence that this positive trend is catching on.

* Now that people are experiencing financial distress, they don't want to be alone.
Recession Lesson: Share and Swap Replaces Buy and Grab
Washington Post 7/17
Since being alone will be increasingly difficult in a lower-energy world, it's good that we're instinctively moving in that direction

* Local utility at forefront of the local-is-better movement begins providing 70% of its water from its own backyard
A Utility the Fills Its Own Aquifers LA Times 7/20
Every home and every community needs to be begin collecting its own otherwise wasted water run off.

* Young people find their calling in organic farming
On Tiny Plots a New Generation of Farmers Emerges USA Today 7/14
In his book Peak Everything, Richard Heinberg points out our impending need for 50 million farmers.

* 47% of consumers say they already are living more simply and find life richer living with less!
In Recession, a Simple 'Silver' Lining USA Today 7/9
This is GREAT news that is looking like a long-term shift in fundamental values.

* Belt tightening is underway; savings up, borrowing's down
A Fundamental Shift; Consumers Are Saving Rather than Spending Los Angeles Times 7/9
This is more very good news, but it also hints that the economy will face some difficult times in the short terms as our economy adjusts to living within our means.

* Banks pull back severely on card lending: new cards down 38%
Banks Get Stingy on Credit USA Today 7/7
I know what terrible news this is for many merchants and some customers, but it is a must if we are to begin living within our means. See U.S. Debt Shrinking at a Glacial Pace

* Developers are creating subdivisions around organic farms to attract buyers
Organic Farms as Sub-Division Amenities New York Times 7/1

* Community gardens in urban neighborhoods a source of future food security and much more
Urban Farming Movement Like a Revolution CNN 6/29

* Milestone for consumers as they try to avoid further debt
Consumers Opt for Debit Over Credit Cards NPR 6/29
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Monthly News Summary: Steps Forward, Steps Back

There have been fewer news stories this month about the negative impact the economic downturn is having on people's lives. Perhaps such stories have become too commonplace now to be "news." Or maybe having so many negative news reports is putting an unwelcomed damper on spending. For whatever reason there have been an increasing number of upbeat proclamations this month about how the signs of downturn are slowing.

Maybe this suffices as good news, but it actually it is misleading news. We should not take glowing reports of slowdowns as a sign of an upturn. It feels more like grasping at straws as more reports confirm that all is not well. You'll find plenty evidence to this effect in the Pathways to Transition News Update Archives for June. Pick any topics of your choice.

But then, if you're reading this blog, you probably don't need to read the headlines to know we are not on the way back to business as usual. Our society is undergoing a massive fundamental restructuring. It is a necessary and unavoidable restructuring, but it is or will be inflicting a lot of pain on us individually, our families and our communities.

If we want to ease the pain, it is vital that we know precisely what's happening, so we won't be too surprised and overwhelmed to respond wisely and urgently as it touches our own lives. It's vital we not be lulled into the complacency of wishful-thinking optimism, even if it is being hawked in the news. This is why we post the Daily New Updates on Pathways to Transition. We track the good, the bad and the ugly there. We know you can tell what's real by checking in with your own life and the lives of those in your communities, but it's always good to see our persepctions validated or, when necessary, awakened by realizing that others see it too.

Despite the on-going evidence that all is not well, there actually is some good news this month.

The good news is that we've seen many more articles and features in the media on the positive steps individuals and communities are taking to respond creatively and intelligently to the massive eco-nomic restructuring that's taking place. Here's a summary of this month's Positive Signs with links where you can read more. Then be sure to read on further for the summary of this month's Steps in the Wrong Direction.

Positive Signs

* Milestone for consumers as they try to avoid further debt
Consumers Opt for Debit Over Credit Cards NPR 6/29

* Household savings hits highest level in 15 yearsSavings Rate Up Amid Slow Spending Denver Post 6/27 This is only good news if it's a sign that Americans are choosing to live within their means and saving for emergency situations so they won't risk being one unexpected crisis away from falling into poverty. Actually often it means that they don't have any other choice except to pay off debts. So it certainly shouldn't be taken as a sign of renewed confidence and well-being, or even that folks have extra money to save. See Debt Deflation in America.

* Young adults talk of not getting enslaved to material goals of their parents' generationRecession Generation? Young Adults Brace for Simpler Lifestyle 6/26

* Number of home schooled children soars Homeschooling Goes Mainstream AFP 6/25 This is most likely the way of the future as we localize and simplify our lives.

* Urban farming takes off.Gardening Goes to Town in Farm City AFP USA Today 6/25 There is a chapter on the Urban Thoreau in our book Middle-Class Lifeboat. It's one of the basic skills we are all be learning.

* Families getting quality beef for $3-$5/lb direct from ranchers.Cow-Pooling: Buying Beef in Mega Bulk New York Times 6/15

* Chick hatcheries can't keep up with urban orders, six-month back orders for household hens.Back Yard Chickens on the Rise, Despite Neighbors' Clucks
Los Angeles Times 6/15

* Rust-belt cities explore plans to shrink as population dwindles Intriguing Plan: Bulldoze Ghost Bergs, Return Them to Nature Alternet 6/13 Related story: Counties turn rural roads they can't afford to repair to gravel. Chicago Tribune 6/12 While this would not appear to be good news; it is because it is a sign the communities are adjusting to the new restructuring reality. It provivdes insight into what will be coming elsewhere soon so we can respond more quickly. Hopefully this land will be restored to a natural condition that will allow for food cultivation.

* Neighborhood and community fruit exchanges grow in popularity. Neighbor, Can You Spare a Plum New York Times 6/9 Many Transition communities are setting up neighborhood fruit tree harvesting exchanges. We're hoping to start one this summer here at Let's Live Local.

* Difficult times call for creative strategies. Cooperatively owned businesses emerged as a democratic, grassroots, Do-It-Yourself response.Worker Co-Ops: Green Jobs You Can Own Organic Consumers Association 6/6 Hope we will see more of this. We have formed both a wood-pellet and organic food coop here at Let's Live Local, which is a non-profit.

* Community groups building local food security Look on the Bright Side Energy Bulletin Today 6/4

* Collaborative solutions making communities resilient Community Kitchens World Changing 6/3

* Stylist low-cost green homes catching Prefab home Now Sprout Green Designs USA Today 6/2

Steps in the Wrong Direction

This year's original song written for the American Idol final competition could be a theme song for this month's Steps in the Wrong Direction. Co-written by Idol judge Kara DioGuardi, the song is entitled "No Boundaries." Here's a sample of it's message: "You can go higher, you can go deeper, there are no boundaries above and beneath you. Break every rule 'cause there's nothing between you and your dreams."

Of course, this is supposed to be an inspiring ditty, but it should be obvious to us all now that there are boundaries. But like two-year-olds with parents who want to be our friends instead of parent us in the ways of the world, we have ignored sensible boundaries for far too long, lived beyond our means. We've broken every rule and now we're paying the piper for our lack of respect. And sadly we're still at it in many circles. Here's three high-publicized examples from this months posts:

* Mood turns optimistic Despite Everything ... More American See Sunny Skies Ahead USA Today 6/23 54% of those polled by USA Today said they are worse off than a year ago, but 59% believe they will be better off a year from now. This may sounds positive, but this is about the worst thing we could be thinking right now. The only way we'll be better off is to realize that "things" are not going to "turn around." We've got to turn around the way we live.

* Construction of new single-family home up Housing Starts Jump 17% USA Today 6/17 While foreclosed homes and housing developments sitting empty across the nation this is not the way to go.

* Faux frugality: the rich welcome the humble abode Burlap Is the New Velvet Los Angeles Times 6/8 Those with $3,600 to spare on a pair of burlap covered upholstered chairs, dial down ostentation so the look may be modest, but the price is not. Shown a limited edition eco-chic lamp $850 Photo by Ken Hively

Be prepared. Check on Pathways to Transition often for the latest updates of the good, the bad, and the ugly.

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